Category: Uncategorized

  • WTI penetrating $105 and Brent at $110

    Oil has risen above its 5 month highs on the oil supply disruptions and the new Iran wars frontline in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, August Saudi production has gone down to 6million barrels a day compared to the 10million Barrels a day pre war average.

    Currently with Irans exports halted through the Strait of Hormuz ,its exports sit idle to the world , but now so does Saudi Arabias , with their exports through the strait stopped, and now the war with the Houthi rebels has damaged export pipelines through the Red Sea part of the Saudi Arabia . Russias exports are also at bare minimum as many pipelines are damaged due to the Ukraine war.

  • Latest Oil trade

    Why 85-95 are great buying opportunities in WTI

  • Solana sideways movement

    • Future price prediction upwards of $150-$250 for year 2024-2025
    • Crypto still remains a good asset to protect one self from political headwinds and tyrannical government confiscation
    • Will remain volatile over time as the geopolitical economic situation around the world will remain uncertain
    • Interest rates direction uncertain as inflation bites back as soon as rates are lowered
    • Plenty of good investment opportunities globally
    • High global bond yields crowding out other investments
    • Crypto potential still good to buy on dips for top 10 coins
    • Solana moving average
      • 20 day at $166
      • 50 day at $156
      • 100 day at $147
      • 200 day at $101

  • Inflation affecting the price of Bitcoin

    Inflation affecting the price of Bitcoin

    Bitcoin price has been on a downward trajectory ever since the ever since the price of US inflation has been released. It fell from its high of $73900 to current rate of $65500.

    PPI and CPI are both up on their month to month basis way more than predicted since the March 12,13 ,14,15 releases.

    -CPI m/m 0.4%

    -CPI y/y 3.2 % vs 3.1% predicted

    -Core PPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.2% predicted

    -PPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.3% predicted

    This with higher oil prices Crude oil at NYMEX is at $82 vs the February lows of $72. This signals that the US FED won’t be able to lower interest rates anytime soon, as it could increase inflation even further .

  • Australia’s economic releases boosted by mineral exports amid sluggish economic data

    Australia’s economic releases boosted by mineral exports amid sluggish economic data

    • The highlight of the February / March data releases has been the trade surplus of $11B thanks to a boost in exports.
    • Current Account surplus $11.8B vs (Forecast 4.9B-Previous 1.3B) DEC 23
    • Goods Trade Balance  $11B vs ( Forecast 11.42B – Previous 10.74 B)
    • Exports in Jan improved by 1.6% m/m to $47.51B
    • Imports grew 1.3% m/m ,currently at $30B. 
    • Strong exports to Asia are keeping Australia’s economy strong
    • AUDUSD in the range 0.65-0.66
    • Another boost is the Chinese trade surplus of 7% y/y in January , 890B Yuan, previous 540B Yuan
    • ASX200 at record 7800
  • Is USD still the KING currency?

    Is USD still the KING currency?

    Many say the US Dollar is finished and that it will be replaced by emerging market currencies. But how true is that?

    Lets delve in

    • THE USD is the most traded in currency in the world with 44% of the $6 Trillion FOREX market being exchanged in dollars.
    • Global central banks hold around 59% of their reserves in the USD . It provides stability and liquidity value.
    • Majority of the worlds commodities such as oil and gas and metals are priced in the USD.
    • Foreign Commercial banks hold dollars onto their deposits known as eurodollars. This allows savers to hold foreign currency and transact in. Assuring them of their money staying stable and not being eroded by inflation.

    Bretton Woods agreement

    • USD became the worlds reserve currency after WW2 after the Bretton Woods Agreement came in effect with 44 allied countries signatories to that. Foreign currencies became pegged to the price of the dollar and allowed easy conversion between the two. As Euro nations ran out of money they deposited gold into the US banks and got back USD to finance their post war efforts. New institutions such as the IMF and World Bank were created to assist war ruined and poor countries to develop with loans .
    • Trading USD allowed worlds central banks to regulate their money supply
    • Foreign countries would buy US treasuries as a way to store their dollars and keep up with inflation. The nations could redeem their USD for gold for $35 an ounce.All of this demand for USD have increased its value.
    • Many countries saw this unfair as they had to produce goods and services in exchange for them purchasing USD treasury bills to regulate their inflation and foreign trade.
    • In 1971 the US with President Nixon got off the gold standard so they could easier issue debt to finance their growing deficit due to the Vietnam war. Many countries such as France,Switzerland and West Germany also left the system to support their own currencies and demanded their gold deposits back.

    Major currencies

    The main competitors to the USD are the majors YEN,EURO,AUD,CAD ,YUAN,RUBLE,SWISS FRANC,BRITISH POUND .These currencies do provide a valid competitor to the US Dollar.But they cannot replace it long term as majority of these mentioned currencies are exporters and their currency value is volatile.Chinese Yuan gets depreacited by its own central bank to keep the yuan competitive for exports . Russian Ruble is reliant on the price of oil and gas and therefore volatile. Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar as commodity exporting currencies, the same as Russia, so their price too is reliant on the commodities prices.The Euro is the biggest solid competitor to the USD as it comprises of euro economies which are all different in its own way. One weakness of the euro is that the EU is facing an economic decline ,so its cant be a formidable opponent to the USD.The Swiss Franc is controlled by its central bank who can in times of strength interfere and weaken the currency to keep it from getting too strong.

    So after our analysis we can conclude that the USD is still the king currency and has no competitor.

    AUDUSD-CADUSD Comparison with an OIL WTI chart at the bottom.They 2 pairs follow oil price in line

    Links

  • Argentina on crossroads

    Argentina on crossroads

    Photo by Carolyn on Pexels.co

    Argentina has chosen a new president with revolutionary ideas to fix their chronic economic problems with inflation which currently hovers around 100% annually. The idea is to follow neoclassical economic principles of privatising assets and having a small government. The new Laissez Faire Incumbent president is facing his Perotist opposition which ran the country the past 19 years , it follows a more Socialist Keynesian principles of a bigger government role in managing the economy, but also one where inflation is rapid due to the governments financial budget solutions to cover rapid deficits with more money printing and debts. Which when accelerated causes high interest rates and run away inflation. It scares away foreign investors, causes deterioration of bond prices and local currency values . The challenge to change this system will be tough , as many government agencies employing thousands of people will need to be closed and the economic system rebooted to follow free market policies of Milton Friedman.At the start an economic shock usually follows with currency devaluation and a recession , but after a year or two the market corrects itself and goes into economic growth .

    Argentina is on the road not taken . How many developed countries do you know that have abolished their Central Banks ?- Not many.

    Questions remain .

    • Will this new economic idea bring an economic improvement?
      • Yes it will definitely invite foreign investment and free market capitalists inside the country that have been put off by the high taxes and government bureaucracy for a long time.
    • Will it make things even worse?
      • It really depends on how abruptly the new economic policies take place and will the vendors and consumers be able to adopt to the new conditions. Dollarisation will devalue the current currency and could cause medium term supply side inflation on the producers . Long term dollarisation could balance out the inflation since the gov central bank won’t issue its own currency anymore.
    • What about Argentinas Economic independence and their ability to have an independent monetary policy.
      • Well it will certainly will as they won’t issue their own currency anymore . They will use a foreign currency where that currency is tied to FED’s interest rates , which are based on the economic performance in the US, not Argentina. So if the latter ever finds it’s self in an economic crisis , it can’t issue and lend its currency to prop up the banks or lower the interest rates, its all going to be done on a limited supply of US dollar reserves held in the Argentine Central Bank and its Treasury . If there isn’t enough dollars to rescue the failing banks , we could be up for a major economic crisis where Keynesian policies are the only rescue .The result of the crisis all depends on the number of dollars available in the reserves.

    All these questions will be answered in a few years time when things unfold .But for now lets try to answer these questions ourselves and create assumptions.

    The economic policy of the new political hierarchy is Laissez Faire compared to the old Keynesian policies of propping up the country through public works and subsidies. The President elect Javier Milei wants to dollarise Argentina and make it the country’s official currency.It will a hard road as the country’s central bank doesn’t have enough dollars in its vaults to buy up all the dollars in the economy and convert them . Miles idea is to gradually phase out the pesos through 2 stages which will take years. Its for the economy to start pricing its goods and services in dollars ,then the Argentine Taxation Office will start collecting dollars in tax receipts and then slowly buy back the pesos from its citizens.The idea also encompasses a privatisation effort to sell government assets to shore dollars into the coffers of the Treasury and bring back Argentine offshore savings back the home nation. But for these ideas to all become true ,the new President has to convince the lower house to support his mad ideas where he only holds a 15% share . That’s not gonna be an easy task.

    Interesting Articles

    Milei’s Path to Dollarization: Riddled with Doubts

    Patrick Boyles analysis of the new Argentine presidents economic ideas

  • AUDUSD Stuck at 0.63

    AUDUSD

    • At 0.63 USD
    • Rates on hold at 4.1% compared to feds 5.5% . After the RBA failed to raise its interest rates at its last meeting on OCT 3 , the AUDUSD slid from 0.65 to 0.63 as the hopes of further interest rate rises have been shedded. FED announced a further rise in interest rates to combat inflation . 
    • Australian CPI stands at 6% .It rose by 0.8% this quarter. The RBA is underestimating the impact of a weak dollar on import prices and what it can do to overall inflation. They are scared to raise the rates up so they don’t hurt the indebted mortgage holders which are under severe mortgage stress all across Australia especially in the capital cities. Quarterly Rents rose by 2.5% , with international travel and accomodation by 6.2%.Rents are surging as investor owners try to defend their returns with the rising interest rates with the latest inflow of new immigrants post covid lockdowns.
  • AUDUSD

    The pair is at 0.66 on the downside due to the 50/50 uncertainty around the next RBA rate rise. The price is trending in the channel and should rebound to above 0.67 . Inflation is falling and the GDP in Australia is rising . Next decision date is on Tuesday the 1st of August .

    Many homeowners and property investors are really struggling right now with the rising interest rates, it will especially get harder when the fixed interest rate mortgages expire and become variable . The labour market is still tight and adds to inflation. All these interest rate rises and the governments economic growth strategy of bringing more immigrants to Australia is having a knock on effect on the renters, as we have a housing crisis in in all major cities and many families are becoming homeless in situations where not even social services can help out.

  • What crypto is good to invest now with the Bitcoin halving coming in 2024

    Crypto investments are a hit and miss.

    Here are some good ones that I personally would invest in , they are safe and reliable . Just be careful out there with all the scammers. Once upon a time in its early days there were only a few alt coins around and all of them were safe. Now days you have thousands of alt coins to choose from and most of them are bullshit coins aka scams.

    Here is main list of alt coins that are good to invest in apart from Bitcoin;

    – Digibyte

    – Ethereal

    – Cosmos

    – Litcoin

    – Vechain

    – Pancake swap

    – Solana

    – Cardano 

    – Stellar Lumens

    – Dogecoin

    – Ripple

    – Tron

    – Polygon

    – Uniswap

    – Monero

    – Ethereum Classic

    – Neo

    – ZCash

    – Dash

    –

    Of course there’s many other great coins out there , but for me these are the top of the range.

  • Power Prices set to rise again in Australia

    Power Prices set to rise again in Australia

    Australia doesn’t need an enemy, its own politicians are its biggest enemy. Not only do they help increase inflation but they sell out local lands, houses and destroy local electricity production capacity driving up electricity prices.

    The closure of the Liddell coal power station and removal of around 2,000 MW will increase the electricity prices for NSW without a proper replacement for the lost supply. With El Nino just around the corner the prices will be a perfect storm for the Australian consumer.

    Power Prices are expected to increase by 25% this year and even more in the summer during heat periods.The government is offering rebated to low income customers but then again the hardest working middle – higher income energy user will foot the tax bill in the future. There is not common sense here. 

    The governments energy escape plan is for renewable energy expansion of 12gw and 2gw of battery storage by 2030 to replace the ageing coal power plants. The auctions will be held twice a year. This will certainly help in our fight against global warming and power prices.

    But by that time comes , that capacity will be just enough to feed that current population in NSW as we have increasing migration by around 400k a year in NSW. 

    The past energy usage figures show that each year the past 3 years our electricity usage has fallen, that’s true as we had lockdowns during covid and its taken a lot of time to get back to normal.On top of that our infrastructure is becoming more efficient year by year. 

    What the government can do to improve our power bills and increase supply?

    • Keep old coal plants open till we find replacement supply and even after that they should be up and running for a few years as backup.
    • Keep investing into renewables and battery storage on mass scale.Incentivise and subsidize small scale solar and local community battery storage hubs .
    • Educate new families and regional households about benefits of independently managed local renewable energy sources and how it can help them eliminate future electricity bills 
    • Incentivize and subsidize the industry about energy efficiency and how they can use cogeneration and recycling from their regular activities to produce energy , recycle and reuse their current production stock, thus save money 
    • Invest into CSIRO and university start up clean tech research and development to support local tech 
    • Encourage Transmission companies to upgrade their transmission lines so they don’t loose the energy transferred.

    Facts

    – 53% of capacity in renewables 13,500 megawatts or around 28,000 mw in total according to energy nsw. 

    https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/major-state-projects/shift-renewables/renewable-energy-nsw#:~:text=NSW%20now%20has%20approximately%2013%2C500,generation%20capacity%20in%20our%20state.

  • Bitcoin halving

    Crypto prices are set to rise again .We have another upcoming Moon.

    The rewards bitcoin miners are earning are halving around April/May 2024 , therefore the supply of bitcoin will fall resulting in a price rise due to scarcity.

    Best Strategy is to slowly accumulate bitcoin and other secure alt coins by buying them on the dip.This way you have a diversified portfolio of crypto and you also have a lower risk of loss.

    https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

    https://www.coindesk.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-explained/

  • Aussie Modern Day Feudalism

    Rising Feudalism in Australia

    1. the dominant social system in medieval Europe, in which the nobility held lands from the Crown in exchange for military service, and vassals were in turn tenants of the nobles, while the peasants (villeins or serfs) were obliged to live on their lord’s land and give him homage, labour, and a share of the produce, notionally in exchange for military protection.
      -Oxford Dictionary

    -More people are becoming homeless in Australia due to the lack of housing and rising rents

    • Reasons behind it are a shortage of housing , rising rents due to the increase of investment properties , massive surge in immigration, government induced policies such as negative gearing and increase in students and skilled migrants.Airbnb short stay accomodation increases and less offers for long term accomodation. Rising interest rates forcing housing rents to increase and costs for property investors
    • The rent market is much tighter and renters are being filtered based on their income, status, jobs and previous rental records.
    • Because of inflation basic items are more expensive whilst buying a property has never been harder to attain as of now. So many folks are being forced to rent and save for years , just to be priced out of the market and instead of saving , actually fall behind on their future property purchase. 
    • Many are trapped in student loans, car loans and rental accomodation, that they can’t fully get off the ground for many years . Now if you have a health condition things can get even tougher , one has to work whilst paying huge medical bills.
    • This is why we now see a record of inequality in the society , where somebody thats wealthier and has generational wealth , can easily save up for a property or even an investment property and become a landlord to somebody else without generational wealth or savings.
    • The most vulnerable members of the society are barely coping and everyday is a struggle for them. These are inviduals with health problems who can’t work full time or have to care for somebody , single mothers / fathers who have no family support or generational wealth behind them to support them through life, young students and new families that just starting to work ,save and payoff old loans . Small business owners have to deal with everyday supply side price increases, labour shortages and rising rents.Not to mention lack of customers if they don’t have many. 

    Who’s the winner in this?

    • Wealthy landlords who have secured their investment properties and have repaid their loans, they can easily breeze through life without worry if they will find tenants or not , as the rental market has strong demand and a short supply of properties available for rent ,especially in the inner suburbs closer to the cities.
  • AUDUSD -NZDUSD

    AUDUSD

    0.68 Currently. 

    Moving around the range 0.64-0.7 the past 3 months with the RBA trailing the FED when it comes to interest rate decisions.

    RBA 4.1% VS FED 5.25% . 

    There is a lot of discontent with the rising interest rates in Australia as it’s causing many borrowers budget turmoil. But at the same time to control this inflation of 7% , the RBA has to follow the lead of the FED and raise its interest rates to keep the AUD strong . Import prices are to be defended.Whether the population likes it or not ,it has to be done to protect the currency and inlflation.

    NZDUSD

    at 0.68 

    Moving in the range of 0.60-0.65 the past 3 months.

    RBNZ 5.5%

    NZ economy entered a recession in June with 2 negative quarters of GDP growth.

    In June the 

    Trade Balance was 46 M vs expected 350 M

    Current Account  was -5.22B vs expected -6.95B

  • The thing that everybody is ignoring

    Inflation is not going anywhere

    Its here to stay forever

    • US debt is spiralling out of control
    • Most developed nations are in recession
    • Who’s gonna save us?
    • Russia Ukraine war causing supply side inflation
    • Ageing populations , who will work for cheap labour?
    • This problem is not gonna disappear its here to stay
    • Only continent with definite growth opportunity is Africa but it has an issue with instability and slow workforce
    • Gov is becoming more authoritarian everywhere across the globe
    • Gov Bonds crowding out private business 
  • HECS AND STUDENT DEBT

    HECS debts are going up by 7% with spiralling inflation. RBA interest rate Is at 4.1 %, wages going up around 5% , then why is it that our student loans are hit the hardest. Is it because our student loans are on the books of the Australian Future Fund and they want to earn some extra dividends on for the government pension fund. 

    Your hecs repayments deducted by your employer through payroll only show when you complete your tax return after July 1st, but indexation applies on June the 1st , so even before you get a chance to reduce your hecs debts, the government indexes you and basically wipes out any repayment you have made recently.

  • Personally these are my Best Crypto currencies to buy on the dip

    Personally these are my Best Crypto currencies to buy on the dip

    All of the listed coins below are safe and have a community of users and developers behind it and are very liquid on the world exchanges .But again be careful don’t get scammed and be mindful of where you HODL your crypto , stake in safe and proven wallets.

    • Bitcoin 
    • Ethereum
    • XRP
    • Cardano 
    • Dogecoin
    • Solana
    • Cosmos
    • Monero
    • Ethereum Classic
    • Vechain
    • Digibyte
    • Zcash
    • Dash
    • Pancake swap(only if you wanna stake)
    • Litecoin

    Old School Decentralised gems

    • Bitcoin
    • Ethereum
    • Monero
    • Litecoin
    • Dogecoin
    • Ethereum Classic
    • Digibyte

    Privacy coins

    • Monero
    • Zcash
    • Dash
    • Verge
    • Vertcoin
  • Where are we now in the World Economy?

    • High Inflation and interest rates
    • Unaffordabiliy
    • Banking collapses
    • US federal gov debt ceiling extension
    • Ukraine Russian war

    Head first we will dive into the biggest question of them all ; What do I invest into now?

    • ANSWER =INVEST IN YOUR SELF AND YOUR FAMILY’S SURVIVAL
    • Improve your own human capital and live a better life and be happy
    • The most obvious common answer to start off is to purchase and store basic consumer goods who’s price accelerates the fastest during inflation and store it as a months supply such as grains, flour ,sugar and others.
    • Next ; always be liquid in cash and short term investment products such as stocks , cryptos ,fuels and metals. So just in case when the day comes you can always dip in to your short term savings and liquidate it without having to touch your long term assets such as Land and Property
    • The most underlooked suggestion is to be healthy ; by living a healthy lifestyle ,eating a vegetable based diet, drinking plenty of water, exercising regularly and avoiding junk food and drinks , you are saving money on having to see doctors , purchasing expensive medicine and having surgeries to solve issues. Remember when you are ill , you cant work or earn a living either . So. by just being healthy and living a minimalist lifestyle , you are already a few steps ahead of the cost curve
    • Plant a vegetable/fruit garden and replace your boring front house lawns and yards with a beautiful healthy garden. This will do wonders for your health. You will physically exercise your muscles whilst planting and maintaining it , learn some growing skills and eat healthier .Be prepared for any upcoming crisis .
    • Learn new Skills such as fixing your electrical and plumbing issues around the house, planting crops and making food ,so when the rainy day comes you and your family will be prepared to solve any local issues without having to spend too much money for contractors.
    • Now this tip will is a surprise. Invest in a good car. Yes , you read right a , invest in a depreciating asset.Now you may wonder why is that…Because you don’t just use you car to drive around but your car is your asset which can be used to earn extra income. With a nice comfortable car You can drive Uber , Lyft and even do food deliveries around town or get a van and deliver goods and packages around your local neighbourhood.Don’t have the money for it? – Get a tax deductible loan and get all the interest deducted from your tax.
    • Buy cheap farmland and escape there during the weekend. Plant trees , enjoy the nature and freedom and rejuvenate your body and brain from the city rush. Bring back positivity to your mind and realisation that you don’t always have to be in the city , there is a life outside the rat race.
  • Bank collapse

    3 Banks close in five days

    • Silvergate March 8
    • Silicon Valley bank march 10
    • Signature bank March 12

    Biggest reason – Crypto deposits and bank runs

    The banks provided bank services for crypto customers.

    Stable coin – USDCoin fell to 0.88 on 10 March but bounced back since then to par level when news of rescue came.

    • Silvergate 

    Was a Crypto bank associated with FTX ,another failed crypto broker whose customers lost billions.FTX held around $1billion in Silvergate when it collapsed and lost around $9 Billion dollars of its clients funds.In the 4th quarter of 2022 alone, Silvergate’s depositors withdrew more than $8 billion in digital deposits from the bank after FTX collapse ,causing the bank to sell its assets at a loss just to recover.But this year the bank went into liquidation due due to high borrowing rates, mounting crypto losses and customer withdrawals.

    After the bank run withdrawals the bank had to borrow $4.3 Billion from the Home Bank Loan System , a fed organisation that assists with short term liquidity in times of need. This caused anger at Capitol Hill as lawmakers argued that if Silverback failed FDIC would get stuck with repaying back those loans. This put extra pressure on the bank as they were forced to sell securities and realise losses on them.

    Q3 balance sheet report showed that the bank had around $12 billion worth of bonds with unrealised losses due to the increased interest rates, if the bonds were held to maturity the losses would not be realised as the bonds would be exercised at face value.After being forced to repay the loans back to Home Loan System , the bank realised around $880 million from selling securities and its deposits fell from $11.9 Billion in Q3 to $3.8 Billion in Q4.The bank posted a net loss for 2022 of around $950 million.One good thing is that after liquidation all Silvergates depositors will get their money back.

    • Silicon Valley Bank

    It failed due to their realisation of market to maturity losses, which amount to billions and their portfolio which was largely concentrated around tech startups around Silicon Valley. The bank had around $200 billion in assets.

    After the interest rate rises , many startups started feeling the cash crunch so they started withdrawing billions of dollars of their deposits at SVB. To raise capital SVB sold its government treasuries worth around $21billion with 1.79% coupon, but the current rate was 3.9%  and realised a $1.8billion loss.It then tried to raise $2.25 billion in capital by issuing new shares but there were rumours of the banks failure so the share price dived 60% straight after.But that deal collapsed as many spooked investors started withdrawing their money from the bank. Then FDIC placed the bank into receivership to protect investors. 

    FDIC has guaranteed clients deposits to the tune of $250 000 for each clients account to divert Armageddon. The main issue was the fall in the value of the US government bonds which the bank invested in .

    Current FED interest rate is 4.75% .

    The biggest problem with SVB is that it hasn’t hedged its books to properly de-risk any losses that arise from rising interest rates. It could have easily hedged its bets with options and derivatives that gain from rising interest rates. FDIC after saving the depositors funds to a limit of $250,000 has taken over SVB and Signature Bank.

    To assist the FED has now opened unlimited lines of credit to the banks to boost short term liquidity for the next year .They are able to lend out money as long as it matches their assets of safe government bonds.What the means is that banks can access depositors cash without having to sell the government bonds on its books who’s value has fallen ,so they don’t realise their massive losses.

    To make matters worse for SVB not only did customers pull billions out of their deposits before the banking regulator had to step in to save it, but the company board gave Itself last minute millions of dollars worth of bonuses and days before exercising their options.

    On 18th of March SVB filed for bankruptcy protection citing that it has only $2.2 billion in liquidity 

    • Signature Bank

    Once held $100 billion in assets but now has been taken over by a local New York community bank Bancorp.The bank collapsed after depositors withdrew billions of dollars of deposits in a span of a few days.Signature Bridge Bank NA assets were purchased by New York Community Bank.They acquired around $38 billion in assets and $13 billion in loans whilst around $60 billion remain in receivership by FDIC.The Bridge Bank was created by FDIC so depositors can still use their credit cards and assets.

    • Others

    The other 2 banks which are in crisis right now is the American First Republic which just got Rescued by American biggest banks with a deposit of $30 billion to stave off global contagion. The other bank in trouble Credit Suisse has just gotten a loan from the Swiss National Bank of $57 billion to assist the bank with liquidity and stop any contagion spreading in the system.Another idea was to consolidate UBS and Credit Suisse, but that would provide too much risk and would monopolise the banking services in Switzerland.The best plan for CS is to create a spin off for some of its riskier assets and float it in an IPO whilst the safer assets like the local community banking could be merged with another local community bank.

    References

    US banks launch $30bn rescue of First Republic to stem spiraling crisis | Banking | The Guardian

    Crypto Bank Silvergate Says It Will Shut Down

    What is Silicon Valley Bank? The bank’s collapse, explained.  – Vox

    Silicon Valley Bank employees received bonuses hours before takeover

    Silvergate Bank Extends Downward Spiral After U.S. Criticism Spurs Losses

    Crypto-friendly bank Silvergate to wind down after FTX blow-up | TechCrunch

    SVB Financial files for Ch. 11 bankruptcy protection, says it has $2.2B in liquidity | TechCrunch

    Explainer: What caused Silicon Valley Bank’s failure? | Reuters

    The Signature Bank Collapse: What You Need To Know | Bankrate

  • Inflation and the rising cost of living

    Written 02/03/2023

    Australia

    • Present inflations too high at its yearly average of 7% in Australia and with a 3.35% RBA interest rate presents a challenge to households.

    USD

    • The USD is the worlds reserve currency and the most stable and liquid currency for global trade as hard majority of commodity trade is done in USD globally.So for us to see where we are heading to , we have to follow the economic data from the FED .
    • USD annual inflation at 6.4% vs  4.75% as at start of 2023.
    • The Fed interest rate was lifted to the current rate from the March 2022 low of 0.1% to bring down inflation and M2.It did achieve its goal partially , as inflation lowered from 8% nominally in US to 6.4% 
    • These FED moves and the selling off the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves helped bring down the price oil at the pump which in turn helped bring down the winter fuel prices globally from the March 2022 peak of WTI $130 to the December 2022 lows of $70. 
    • Currently WTI is at $75 with its current stockpile of SPR of 370 million barrels of oil, down from the high of 650 million , 3 years ago. 
    • Since then the SPR has been slowly getting smaller with the biggest slide seen since the start of the Russian/Ukranian war in February 2022 , since then it has fallen from 590 million to the current 370million barrels of oil.The FED actions with EU’s December 2022 price cap on Russian crude at $60 kept the global price at bay .WTI has since December hovered around the $70-75 area. Whilst Brent has been hovering around $75-88

    What Caused the price of oil to spike up so high?

    • WTI fell to its lows of $11 on the spot market at April 2020 when lockdowns began and the economic future was gloomy.But since then the panic stopped and things got back to normal , oil climbed on a slow upwards trajectory towards $85 ,that was until the war began and it reached $130 in March 2022.
    • Many say it’s because of the war, that’s the case but only psychologically ,as fear and panic set in on the global markets.  Before that Russia sold its oil at discounted prices to European countries through long term contracts and transferred the oil through its pipelines in the Eastern Europe and nordic countries. But then many of these countries promised to stop buying Russian oil and gas and instead went on global markets to buy shipped gas through tankers from USA,Canada and Gulf countries which was much pricier through the open markets.Not only that but they had to compete with Asia which bought its gas at higher prices compared to Europe as shipping gas is a much costlier endeavour compared to gas transferred through pipelines. 
    • Natural gas is around $3 per mmbtu right now, coming down from $10 since the start of the war .Global increased production and the weak winter in Europe helped ease the pressure from the price.
  • Australian Housing Unaffordability-Part 1

    Written in November 2022

    • Australian way of living is changing with inflation and the unaffordability crisis.
    • Young people have to work much longer to afford to buy a house whilst real wages inflation adjusted have actually fallen. 
    • Owning vs Renting?
    • Debt Servicing is becoming more expensive and is eating away families food budgets

    Gone are the days of Australia being the lucky country, Australian first homebuyers have to work twice as longer as their parents just to be able to afford their first home. In post lockdown Australia their wallets are getting over stretched with dictatorial government created inflation and the current global supply shock energy prices. The weather didnt help either ,La Nina caused flooding in the past 3 years has devastated many crops and created fresh food shortage across East Coast supermarkets.Petrol prices are normally hovering just above around $2 now days , increasing our daily cost of living.

    When you are meant to live closer to your work, young Australians are now buying further and further from their workplace,some even going 50km away and traveling for more than an hour each way , as it is all they can afford now.Many of them are trapped in this mirage of a dream family life , where they are expected to provide a good life for their families , but instead they are stuck in a debt trap,seeing their buying power shrink day by day, and having to work more hours to keep up with it all.

    Dont want to buy a home , should you rent one?

    Rent is dead money as everyone knows, if you are single this could be an easy option, one can get a place next to their workplace and share costs with a room mate. But what will happen when you get older and have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on rent, when you could have used it as a first home buyer deposit.Today there is another problem in Australia , low vacancy rates which are hovering around 1% in Sydney at the moment.

    Australians are now having to compete with one another just to be able to find a place to live, with homelessnes at records all across the country.

    Income and Debt Servicing

    Nominally wages are rising every year , but when you put the price of housing ,fuel and basics into the equation , real time wages ticked lower.

    To succeed in life now days a young independent person needs a future proof strategy , depending that they stay healthy of course.

    An Average Gross Salary in Australia is around $80k , after tax that’s $60k.

    An average apartment in western Sydney costs around $500k , if you go into the more affluent neighbourhoods with a better lifestyle and closer to the beach your looking at something more expensive around $800k.

    Just to afford your first property which is 30km from the CBD , you will have to work around 10 years and using 100% of your earnings into mortgage repayments just to pay it all off. That’s if you exclude other costs such as starting a family, paying bills, sending money overseas to your family and even going on vacation. 

    But if you want to live in house , you will never even be able to afford it as an average house 30km from the centre costs around $1mill. 

    Basically unless your family helps you out and repays half your property off or if u don’t make a ton of money off bitcoin or by winning the lottery you will be working like a slave just to put a roof over your head. Stress is real .

    Now let’s not talk about petrol prices and the inflation ,especially the rising interest rates , ooh boy don’t go there.

    Mortgage interest rates are hovering around 5-6% , petrol over $2 a litre, record grocery prices at the shops, record house prices, even catching a train now days is expensive. 

    In reality all those crazies that have been saying the market will collapse and the dollar will collapse are all starting to look extremely smart , they’ve predicted it all. 

    Like the people that bought bitcoin for a couple of dollars as a joke and sold it later for tens of thousands of dollars each and became millionaires. 

    You really have to go against the tide to to come out as a winner.

    The smartest were the guys that went out in the rural areas and built environmentally friendly homes and installed solar panels on their rooftops , built their own creeks and own water wells and gardens with farm animals roaming around the farm .They are now enjoying a peaceful existence leaving off the land with free electricity. They can easily enjoy this inflationary crises by building another home on their lot and putting it on airbnb, let the dividends flow in .

    AUDUSD is at record low at 0.62 as I’m writing this article. This week Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its rates by 25 basis points to 2.85 % , whilst the Federal Reserve in USA lifted their rates by 75 basis points , to 4% to fight off inflation.

  • Market update 14.10.2022

    • FED nowhere near pausing is market tightening
    • Stock indexes bounced back after higher CPI
      • CPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.1% previous
      • CPI y/y 8.2% vs 8.3% previous
      • Core CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% previous
      • US unemployment claims 228k vs 219k previous
    • SP500 on the CPI news at NYSE Open release time from 3165 to 3500 in the first half an hour , then slowly retraced back to 3680 as the NY session closed
    • WTI hovered around $85-89 through the volatile session
      • Crude oil inventories 9.9 mil vs -1.4 m previous
      • Distillate Inventories -4.1 m vs -3.4m previous
      • Gasoline Inventories 2m vs -4.7m previous
      • Last weeks Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 602
      • OPEC Lowering production

    British Pound has recovered to 1.13 against the greenback on the news that the UK budget might include lifting the corporate tax rate.Previously the Treasury and the new Prime Minister announced plans of an expansionary fiscal policy and tax rate cuts for higher income earners that drove the pound into a new low.

    30 year GILT went down 29 basis points to 4.52% . The plan originally was to keep corporate tax rate at 19% now they are planning to lift it to 25% next year.

    Truss plans to lower 45% tax rate for the highest income earners has been scrapped by the Chancellor Kwarteng as the tax cuts would creae a budget short fall. A recommendation by the Institute for Fiscal Studies has advised that the UK gov needs to raise rates by 62 billion pounds to fill the budget coffers.

  • Upcoming RBA interest rate decision

    Current rate is at 2.25% , predictions go from 25 to 50 basis points rises.

    Lets wait and see . Any rate rise will be welcome.

    WTI was up $85 from session low at the start of $81 on the light of the Wednesday OPEC meeting which is predicted to cause a 1million barrel a day cut , in the hopes to lift the prices up.

    Russia has vowed to stop sending oil exports to any country that set up oil price controls.

  • AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR HITS A NEW LOW

    The AUDUSD pair hit a low of 0.6580 before it went back to the 0.66 levels after FED Lifted its nominal interest rate from 2.5% to 3.25% to fight inflation which this year has been over 8% in the USA.


    This weakness in AUD has not been seen since April 2020 when the lockdowns and lowering of interest rates crashed the Australian Dollar.

    When RBA held its interest rates were higher than the FED , AUD held its strenght but now that its interest are lower, the AUD is sinking to new lows . The only thing that saves the aud from sinking even lower are the high prices of export commodities.More than 75% of australian exports are minerals and metals, once that value goes down, AUDUSD could easily sink to new lows of 0.50 . Then the RBA would have to lift its interest rate even higher to keep the strenght of AUD .

  • UPCOMING – FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

    2PM EASTERN TIME , AEDT 10+ IS AT 4am .

    Expected 0.75 interest rate rise from 2.5% to 3.25% .

    Many analysts are saying that it could a 100 basis points rise.