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Mountain Tech Analysis

Tag: Commentary

  • AUDUSD Analysis

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    TECH OUTLOOK-Daily chart

    AUDUSD has been floating around 0.63 to 0.7 range for the past few quarters now. Currently at 0.65 it’s at a steady pace towards the upside but still relatively weak compared to the previous years which averaged 0.75-0.85 . AUDUSD is just under the 200 day exponential moving average now and showing that it’s a good buying opportunity.RSI is at 40, under its 50 mark showing sold out conditions.

    FUNDY

    Currently the AUD has lower international buying power and is cheaper for foreigners to come to Australia and purchase its goods and services boosting export growth .

    Australian GDP has been sluggish , not fully going in line with the inflation rate which was around 7% in 2023 whilst the GDP rose September 2022 to September 2023 to 2.1% nominally.

    Current yearly CPI is at  4.9% whilst the cash rate at 4.35%.

    For America CPI is at 3.1%  , cash rates at 5.5%.

    ASX200 sitting at 7600 , just under its record high of 7700. Lowering the interest rates in the future for both FED and RBA will lift up the Stock Market even further up.

    US 10yr bond yields are up at 4.275% . Quarterly high was 5% and a low of 3.8% . 

    CALENDAR

    Chinese Central Bank has lowered its 5 year Lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.95% to assist with economic growth and stabilise the property market. This week the Feds meeting to see if they will lower rates , the speculation on the Street is that it will have to wait till June with 53% of surgery respondents sure that its going to be then. 

  • Have Trump’s tariffs had any effect on China?

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    Chinas economy is rapidly expanding even after its US-Sino economic war with Donald Trump.

    That shows the strength and flexibility of the Chinese powerhouse .

     

    • China is a manufacturing powerhouse with Industry comprising over 40% of its GDP
    • Its people have moved all across the globe colonising different countries, following the old Colonialist model of creating demand for mother country’s products from overseas, this in turn generates jobs in China and improves the economies of both the mother country and the new countries
    • Millions of Chinese people have emigrated the country  , creating a purchasing force for its export oriented economy. Their numbers are growing and so is their influence on their new base countries to further develop better relations with China economically and politically
    • It’s manufactured products generally have an elastic demand as they are price dependent
    • Recently Chihas domestic industry has been producing high quality products duo to it’s high skills base of educated professionals.Their engineers design and build world class bridges,power plants and telecommunications tech around the world

     

    Trumps trade war did slow down Chinas economy but it’s still running strong and is expanding

     

    Asia

     

    • Chinas GDP quarter to quarter in January 2019 grew 1.5 % compared to the last Octobers 1.6% and 1.7% in July ,year on year in 2018 the GDP expanded by 6.6%  , which is the weakest pace from 1990
    • China’s 2018 trade surplus grew 9.9% to $351 Billion
    • Its unemployment rate is at 3.8% down from 4% , the same time in January 2018

     

    China’s industries are feeling the pinch of the trade war and effecting neighbouring economies

     

    • Japan’s exports to China in January fell by 17.4% year to year to $8.65Billion.It’s the second month of Decline from December’s drop of 7%.Chipmaking equipment exports to China fell the most by 25% , electronic circuits by 25% and chemical products and metals by around 10%.

     

    All this whilst Taiwanese exports to the US were up 21.2% last month .Many Chinese companies like Pegatron shifted production there.

     

    Even in South Korea the trade war is felt , with exports to China dropping by 14% on the year to $11.9 Billion.

     

    Samsung’s operating profit from the microchip business fell 29% to

    7.77 trillion won , as clients from  China have a dim view of the economy and are holding off further investments.

    Hyundai’s group operating profit fell 35% .Sales on their Chinese units fell to 221,000 as the trade war lowered the damand and the competition in China intensified. But overall Hyundai’s revenue has increased by 5% to 25.67 trillion won./.