Mountain Tech Analysis

Category: Commentary

  • AUDUSD Analysis

    AUDUSD Analysis

    TECH OUTLOOK-Daily chart

    AUDUSD has been floating around 0.63 to 0.7 range for the past few quarters now. Currently at 0.65 it’s at a steady pace towards the upside but still relatively weak compared to the previous years which averaged 0.75-0.85 . AUDUSD is just under the 200 day exponential moving average now and showing that it’s a good buying opportunity.RSI is at 40, under its 50 mark showing sold out conditions.

    FUNDY

    Currently the AUD has lower international buying power and is cheaper for foreigners to come to Australia and purchase its goods and services boosting export growth .

    Australian GDP has been sluggish , not fully going in line with the inflation rate which was around 7% in 2023 whilst the GDP rose September 2022 to September 2023 to 2.1% nominally.

    Current yearly CPI is at  4.9% whilst the cash rate at 4.35%.

    For America CPI is at 3.1%  , cash rates at 5.5%.

    ASX200 sitting at 7600 , just under its record high of 7700. Lowering the interest rates in the future for both FED and RBA will lift up the Stock Market even further up.

    US 10yr bond yields are up at 4.275% . Quarterly high was 5% and a low of 3.8% . 

    CALENDAR

    Chinese Central Bank has lowered its 5 year Lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.95% to assist with economic growth and stabilise the property market. This week the Feds meeting to see if they will lower rates , the speculation on the Street is that it will have to wait till June with 53% of surgery respondents sure that its going to be then. 

  • Solana Technical Analysis

    Solana Technical Analysis

    Simple Resistance and Support levels to watch.

    Simple levels to watch , Solana resistance at 50% gann levels Around $120-170 , support fall back at $60 for the incoming year

    LINK

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SOLUSD/3CAB5R5S-SOLANA-RESISTANCE-AND-SUPPORT/

  • Best strategies to save money (Part 1 )

    Best strategies to save money (Part 1 )

    What can you do to fix your bad spending habits and save money ?- Here are some great strategies to accomplish your financial goals .

    Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

    Strategies

    The biggest barriers towards saving are mental . We are used to shopping impulsively sometimes as stress relief for our busy lives and sometimes you wanna go shopping and spend a little extra for your next party so you can look festive . All this costs money. How do you change this and still have fun in life. We’ll lets get started with some simple strategies.

    First step is to create a goal and work towards it like buying your first home or car. Approximately find out how much you will need and how long it will take you to get there with your current budget . Let’s say it takes a year to save $20,000 for a car . Great !

    Now divide that by the number of weeks in a year which is 52. So approximately you will need $385 a week.

    How do you get to that target if you are already struggling to save?

    Now ask yourself the question . What are my fixed costs in the next couple of months. Let’s say in the next 3 months you will have $10,000 in bills that need to be paid .Your weekly wage per week is $1000 after tax which is around $13,000 for those 3 months. A simple calculation will leave you with savings of $3,000 . Per year approximately you will approximately be able to save $12000. But what about the missing $8,000 for your car obviously you can’t get there within a year you will need 2 years of savings. But before you start saving for your goal , the most important preliminary thing would be to save the $10,000 so you can have a peace of mind and be able to cover your basic lifestyle bills for the next 3 months. So do that first before you start saving for your car or house deposit.

    Where will you get the rest of the missing money to achieve your goal?

    • Start a Side hustle with a goal to earn that extra $150 a week by getting a second job or have your own business . There’s plenty of side jobs to go around such as barista, bartender, landscaper, labourer ,security guard. If you work Monday to Friday , you can use your weekends to cash in instead of partying . Sundays are always paid double ,so it will work to your advantage.
    • Use your car or house to earn extra income . With the car you buy , you can try driving for Uber or Lyft , earn an extra income and get some money back on your new car through tax depreciation.You can also start a side hustle in your house or garage, like baking, fixing or cleaning your neighbours cars or lets say growing pot plants in the yard starting from seed and selling them off when they grow bigger.The list goes on …You can also lease out you unused space like rooms or garages to potential renters and earn an extra cash income.
    • Lower your costs and live more minimalist. Are you dining and wining way too often and impulse shopping ? Well, now is a time to cut it down, make food at home and watch your account grow

  • Have Trump’s tariffs had any effect on China?

    Chinas economy is rapidly expanding even after its US-Sino economic war with Donald Trump.

    That shows the strength and flexibility of the Chinese powerhouse .

     

    • China is a manufacturing powerhouse with Industry comprising over 40% of its GDP
    • Its people have moved all across the globe colonising different countries, following the old Colonialist model of creating demand for mother country’s products from overseas, this in turn generates jobs in China and improves the economies of both the mother country and the new countries
    • Millions of Chinese people have emigrated the country  , creating a purchasing force for its export oriented economy. Their numbers are growing and so is their influence on their new base countries to further develop better relations with China economically and politically
    • It’s manufactured products generally have an elastic demand as they are price dependent
    • Recently Chihas domestic industry has been producing high quality products duo to it’s high skills base of educated professionals.Their engineers design and build world class bridges,power plants and telecommunications tech around the world

     

    Trumps trade war did slow down Chinas economy but it’s still running strong and is expanding

     

    Asia

     

    • Chinas GDP quarter to quarter in January 2019 grew 1.5 % compared to the last Octobers 1.6% and 1.7% in July ,year on year in 2018 the GDP expanded by 6.6%  , which is the weakest pace from 1990
    • China’s 2018 trade surplus grew 9.9% to $351 Billion
    • Its unemployment rate is at 3.8% down from 4% , the same time in January 2018

     

    China’s industries are feeling the pinch of the trade war and effecting neighbouring economies

     

    • Japan’s exports to China in January fell by 17.4% year to year to $8.65Billion.It’s the second month of Decline from December’s drop of 7%.Chipmaking equipment exports to China fell the most by 25% , electronic circuits by 25% and chemical products and metals by around 10%.

     

    All this whilst Taiwanese exports to the US were up 21.2% last month .Many Chinese companies like Pegatron shifted production there.

     

    Even in South Korea the trade war is felt , with exports to China dropping by 14% on the year to $11.9 Billion.

     

    Samsung’s operating profit from the microchip business fell 29% to

    7.77 trillion won , as clients from  China have a dim view of the economy and are holding off further investments.

    Hyundai’s group operating profit fell 35% .Sales on their Chinese units fell to 221,000 as the trade war lowered the damand and the competition in China intensified. But overall Hyundai’s revenue has increased by 5% to 25.67 trillion won./.